Bitcoin Price Analysis – Holding Steady

The bitcoin price chart has been whip-sawing as buyers eagerly anticipate the next advance, while profit-takers capitulate on each approach of $780 (Bitstamp). Technical analysis finds a repeating pattern and its potential outcome.

Bitfinex BTC/USD 1-Hour Candle Chart



The 1hr candle Bitfinex chart illustrates the dynamic of price consolidation and MACD compression. MACD compression is evident from its Bollinger Bands.

As annotated in the chart, the Bollinger Bands contract around MACD as price consolidates into a narrowing range. Although MACD tends towards its zero line during price consolidation (decreasing volatility), we can see that during a rally, MACD may fail to reach zero and tend toward its lower Bollinger Band instead. Once sufficient pressure has built up, price will then launch into a wave of advance.

During the past two days, we see that price meets resistance at $780 while MACD consolidates to its lower Bollinger Band. If the pattern highlighted in the chart continues, then we can expect ongoing consolidation and an eventual upside breakout to the targets at $820 and, potentially, $850 for the next wave of advance.

A classic buy signal should confirm the start of the move. We remain open to the possibility of a test of support lower in the chart and, therefore, trade only when a specific sequence of buy signals confirm the price move.

Experienced traders control risk, inexperienced traders chase gains. – Jim Rohn


Yesterday’s sense that bitcoin price is preparing for a large advancing move remains. Although price had been rearing to go this weekend, technical analysis shows that additional consolidation is in store. Any pullback should remain within the consolidation range, and the eventual advancing wave seems destined to surpass $800 and reach for $820 or $850.

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